Politics
Analysis: Elections could offer some clues
The Associated Press
12:54 PM EST November 1, 2009
The three candidates for governor of New Jersey, from left, Democrat Jon. S. Corzine, Independent Chris Daggett, and Republican Chris Christie. Third party candidate Daggett has gone from an afterthought to a player, who could upend a major race in off-year elections Tuesday.
© AP

President Barack Obama isn't on the ballot. Neither are all members of Congress, nor most governors.

But to varying degrees, the outcome of a few disparate elections Tuesday could provide clues about how people - particularly independents, who typically determine a winner - feel about their country, their president and the party in power one year after Democrats won the White House.

The results also could provide important lessons for Democrats and Republicans a year before the first major electoral test of Obama's strength: 2010, when there are 37 races for governor, at least 36 in the Senate and all 435 in the House.

This year, Virginia and New Jersey are choosing governors, voters in upstate New York and northern California are deciding who should fill two vacant congressional seats, and New York City and Atlanta are picking mayors. Maine will vote on whether to permit gay marriage while Ohio will choose whether to allow casinos.

Voting on local issues, personalities
To be sure, these races are hardly bellwethers; people are voting on local issues and personalities. Most voters in Virginia and New Jersey, for example, say their like or dislike of Obama isn't what will drive their decision. Still, national forces such as the recession are having an effect.

This much is clear: Tuesday will give a picture of public attitudes in certain places and measure which party has energy on its side heading into a high-stakes election year. Some questions will be at least answered partially.

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